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Winning is the most reliable way to gain respect within international rugby union. The frustrating defeats and false dawns are ultimately empty. And for all Scotland’s promising progress in recent years, they now face substantial scalps.
The nature of the Test level, where the margins are fine and certain styles hamper different opponents to varying degrees, means that teams will have their own views on any given rival. Scotland are on a tumultuous run with just one defeat in seven against England, for example. Speak to Irish fans, however, and they will tell you that Gregor Townsend’s men are chronic underachievers.
Successive eliminations in the group stages of the World Cup have been a scourge, even if the 2023 draw was ridiculous. There’s the fact that Scotland have never made it past the top two in a Six Nations tournament. While they may not change that in matches against Fiji, South Africa, Portugal and Australia, there is reason to believe this will be an autumn to get them going.
Last season’s silverware is the first source of encouragement. Scotland boast a strong Glasgow Warriors contingent, who won the United Rugby Championship with two memorable play-off victories on the road. Munster were beaten 17-10 at Thomond Park before Franco Smith’s men laid siege to Loftus Versfeld in the final.
Translating the feeling of belief from the club scene
True to the Warriors’ free-flowing traditions, clever tries punctuated both matches. Sebastián Cancelliere finished off a nasty counter triggered by Tom Jordan, Rory Darge and Huw Jones against Munster. A week later, in Pretoria, Jones capped a team move that had moved from the left flank to the right flank and back again.
A group of fit and well-trained Flintstones, however, proved to be the foundation. The forwards came out strong to win two close-range tries against the Bulls and sealed the match by keeping away a meaty strike from their hosts. Scott Cummings, the 27-year-old who started all five rounds of the 2024 Six Nations, was in the thick of it.
Townsend will draw on the cohesion of a well-rounded Warriors backline featuring Matt Fagerson, Darge and Jack Dempsey. Tighthead prop Zander Fagerson, like several of his colleagues, is set to take part in the British and Irish Lions tour next summer. Sione Tuipulotu is another favorite for this trip and took on the role of Scotland captain before this campaign. A spiky carrier with refined passing skills and a nice kicking game, he’s a complete center.
Translating a sense of conviction from the club scene is therefore Scotland’s starting point. Frontline full-back Blair Kinghorn is another figure keen to get into the habit. He joined Toulouse from Edinburgh last December and quickly secured a Top 14 and Champions Cup double. By sharing pivotal moments in high-stakes competitions with Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Thomas Ramos, Julien Marchand and others, Kinghorn begins to support each other more firmly.
“In a really big moment, you might think, ‘I’d better not do that, it’s kind of 50-50,'” he says. “They [the Toulouse players] you just need to completely regain their confidence. They know their abilities, they know the players around them, they trust everyone. It’s just that sometimes they take moves off the training pitch in the biggest games.
“People will say ‘the French love to play rugby and throw the ball’, but that’s what they do in training, so it’s part of their skills, their mindset and the way they bring out the best in everyone. It’s really fun to be a part of, to be honest.
“We have players in the [Scotland] team that has the ability to do it,” adds Kinghorn. “The big thing I noticed [at Toulouse] players trust their skills in big moments and don’t shy away from them. This is probably something I’ve been guilty of in the past; when it gets a little tight in big matches, be a little more reserved and don’t support yourself as much. Something I’m learning from these boys is to trust each other and play rugby.
The number of players should reach its maximum
Finn Russell has been an encouraging influence for Scotland, but the fly-half can only take on so much creative responsibility. Townsend hopes the summer tour of the Americas, undertaken without Russell, will have proven beneficial as a depth-building exercise. Jamie Dobie, another Warrior, appeared in all four matches against Canada, USA, Chile and Uruguay. He started two on the wing and played scrum-half, his main position, for the others. The bottom line is that Dobie, a burly athlete, now seems like a great option if Townsend fancies a six-two split of forwards on the bench.
At 32, Russell appears more measured than ever on the pitch. The return of Darcy Graham, now 27, adds another deciding factor to Townsend’s defense. Sione Tuipulotu and Kinghorn are also 27, with scrum-half Ben White a year younger. Duhan Van der Merwe is 29 and Huw Jones is 30. A number of excellent operators should be near their peak at the same time. Although Kyle Steyn is out, Kyle Rowe is in electric form.
Any lingering pain from last season’s Six Nations can also be channeled. Three losses of four points or less, each going down to the last play, hurt a lot. Scotland are currently seventh in the World Rugby rankings, behind England and Argentina – teams they would not fear.
Following this weekend’s opening match against Fiji, where Townsend will field players from Glasgow and Edinburgh as well as the Sharks’ Dylan Richardson due to club release rules, a meeting with the world champions on the 10th November represents an important milestone. Scotland went to the last World Cup ranked fifth, which made a mockery of the draw.
South Africa stifled them with a superb defensive performance before Ireland sent them home. Yet if this is any indication of how Scotland are regarded, the Springboks recognize their potential.
“They play according to their DNA with a lot of flair but also discipline to know how to kick and run,” explains Ox Nché. “You’ve got a lot of their guys coming of age, with a lot of Test caps now. There is a new energy alongside the experience. This is going to be a very good challenge.
Damian de Allende cites Glasgow’s defeat to the Stormers in Stellenbosch, a week after they salvaged two bonus points following a loss to a loaded Sharks side, which included Eben Ezetebeth and Siya Kolisi as well as Nché, as more encouraging signs for Scotland.
“I’m excited to play against them and get the Edinburgh atmosphere back,” De Allende said. “It’s going to be physical, as always. I just think maybe they’ll take a little more risk…maybe “risk” isn’t the right word. Maybe they’ll try a little harder than in the past.
As De Allende suggests, this looks like a season for Scotland to go from plucky banana skin to consistent strength. It’s time for them to make a splash.
